潘基文 博鳌亚洲论坛理事长
BAN Ki-moon
Chairman, Boao Forum for Asia
共迎挑战，共担责任
Common Challenges,
Shared Responsibilities
欢迎各位在这样一个阳光明媚、气温宜人、万物欣荣的龙年春日参加博鳌亚洲论坛2024年年会。欢迎各位重返这场博鳌大家庭的年度聚会，与我们一起重温友谊、再续前缘，一起回顾过往、碰撞思想，一起谋划蓝图、用行动迎接未来。来自亚洲和世界各地的2000多名政府要员、商界领袖和学术泰斗在这座小岛上齐聚一堂，并将在未来三天就当今一系列最紧迫的问题进行头脑风暴。社会各界对我们寄予厚望。我们决不能让他们失望。
回顾过去，我们取得了许多值得欣慰和自豪的成绩。我们成功走出了多年以来最严峻的局面，以比预期更强的韧性顶住了接二连三的冲击和危机。世界从新冠疫情的控制和恐惧中浴火重生。通货膨胀的威胁小于预期，而且在大多数国家都迅速得到了控制。全球经济很可能不会硬着陆。温和但稳定的增长指日可待。
展望未来，前路绝不会一片坦途。挑战随处可见，我们任重道远。黑天鹅、灰犀牛、白象或黑水母事件随时可能发生。在当今这样一个高度互联、全球化的世界，这些挑战和风险的影响往往不会局限于某一个国家或地区，而是会跨越国界，蔓延开来，迫使我们必须在未知中同舟共济、共克时艰。
比如气候危机。在我们为经济问题和地缘政治问题头疼的同时，全球变暖也在按照自己的节奏不断向前发展。全球气温仍在稳步上升。刚过去的2023年已被确认为有记录以来最热的一年。这一记录很可能会被再次打破，因为2024年1月已被确认为有记录以来最热的月份。
全世界都在行动，只是行动的速度还不够快，力度还不够大。去年12月，联合国气候变化框架公约缔约方大会第二十八届会议（COP28）誓言要摆脱对化石燃料的依赖，将可再生能源占比增加两倍，并为最脆弱国家提供更多气候融资。对于实现1.5℃目标而言，这项协议具有历史性意义，但还仅仅是个开始，而不是终点。全球气候行动必须跟进，通过快速、深入、持续地减少全球温室气体排放，践行自己的誓言，从而实现到2030年和2035年碳排放分别比2019年减少43%和60%、到2050年碳净零排放的目标。
全球行动必须建立在信任和团结的基础上，遗憾的是，这种基础在过去几年飞速流失。竞争、对抗和冲突日益加剧。俄乌冲突与巴以冲突或将进一步撕裂世界。各国都在根据意识形态或地缘政治重新站队。我们需要同舟共济，但并非每个人都在朝着同一个方向前进。持续和平与可持续发展这两个支撑联合国的崇高目标仍遥不可及。
面对日益增强的复杂性和不确定性，我们必须要有远见卓识、勇气和创新精神，而这些又必须建立在常识和经过实践检验的智慧之上。我们必须以《联合国宪章》所载的那些行之有效的价值观和原则为准绳。我们必须再次发挥以联合国为核心的那些证明过自己能力的机构的作用。我们必须重振过去那种为捍卫和平、促进繁荣发挥过重大作用的多边方式。面对共同的挑战，我们必须团结一致，朝着同一个方向前进。
作为联合国前秘书长和博鳌亚洲论坛理事长，我对各国及各国人民共同努力时所能爆发出的力量充满信心。在此，我向出席博鳌亚洲论坛2024年年会的各位领袖和代表发出呼吁，请携手并进，共同迎接我们共同的挑战，承担起我们共同的责任，并为打造和平与发展的未来而共同努力。虽然大家在博鳌的行程只有四天，但却足以给亚洲，乃至整个世界带来巨大影响。
Welcome to the Annual Conference 2024 of the Boao Forum for Asia in the sunny, mild and promising springtime of the Year of the Dragon.
Welcome back to this annual gathering of the Boao Family to renew friendship, reconnect, review, adebate, plan and act. More than 2000 government, business and intellectual leaders from Asia and around the world are gathered in this tiny island for a three-day intensive brainstorming on the most pressing issues of the day. People lay high hopes on us. We must not let people down.
Looking back, there is much to take comfort from and pride in. We have beaten the worst-case scenario, and emerged from a successive barrage of shocks and crises with stronger-than-expected resilience. The world is freed from the grip and fear of the pandemic. Inflation is less threatening as we thought it would be, and falling fast in most countries. Global economy may well escape a hard landing. A modest but steady rise is in sight.
Looking ahead, however, it’s no all roses or plain sailing. Challenges abound and weigh heavy. Black swans, grey rhinos, white elephants or black jellyfish may pop up anytime on the way. Quite often, in a highly connected and globalized world, these challenges and risks are not confined to one country or region. They cross borders, spill over, and force us into one same boat in the unchartered waters.
The climate crisis, for instance. None of our economic or geopolitical headaches has disrupted the pace of global warming. It just keeps going up. The past year of 2023 was just confirmed as the hottest year on record. That record, however, may well be broken again as January 2024 was just found to be the hottest month on record.
The world is acting, but not fast and enough. Last December, the COP28 vowed to transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewables and increase climate finance for the most vulnerable. A historic agreement to keep the 1.5°C goal alive, but just the beginning, not the finish line. Global climate action must follow up and match the words with rapid, deep and sustained reductions in the global greenhouse gas emissions of 43 percent by 2030 and 60 percent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level, and net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Global action must be based on trust and solidarity, which unfortunately is quickly missing in the past few years. On the rise are intensifying rivalry, confrontation and conflicts. The Ukraine conflict and the IsraelPalestinian conflict threaten to rip the world further apart. Countries are regrouping and realigning along ideological or geopolitical lines. We’re forced into one same boat, but not everyone rows in the same direction. Sustained peace and sustainable development, two lofty goals underpinning the United Nations, are still far away.
Addressing such increasing complexities and uncertainties takes vision, courage and innovativeness which, however, must build on common sense and proven wisdom. We must go back to the proven values and principles enshrined in the UN Charter. We must rekindle the proven institutions with the UN at the core. We must revitalize the multilateral approach that has helped safeguard peace and promote prosperity. In the face of common challenges, we must row in the same direction as a team.
As former Secretary General of the UN and Chairman of the Boao Forum for Asia, I have deep faith in the power of countries and people working together. I call upon you, leaders and fellow delegates of the BFA Annual Conference 2024, to rise to our common challenges, take up our shared responsibilities and work together towards our shared future of peace and development. Your stay in Boao is only four days, but enough to make a big difference in Asia and the world.
I wish the Annual Conference 2024 a shining success as always.
来源：博鳌亚洲论坛
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